re: Need Bots
I think economics and risk management (and associated fears) are probably at the core of everything.
When we have self-driving trucks, the price of delivering goods will come down. When we have software that handles smart contracts (like Ethereum), the price of moving money, trade, buying insurance, land, whatever, will go down. A lot less people and middlemen will be involved too.
I have seen a prominent speaker speak passionately about elderly and other care, saying that this is the very last thing we should outsource to robots, arguing that it is perhaps the only thing thatr the robots are not capable of doing…actually empathizing, caring, love, etc. It caused me to take pause of my visions of a robotic future. I really liked “Robot and Frank” and the potential for robots for the elderly, but get the speaker’s point.
If we are not spending our time driving, working, selling insurance, flipping burgers, waging war, etc., perhaps we can find time to do something we are uniquely qualified to do…loving. Then again, that might require looking up from our phones and Facebook, talking, and listening more.
There is the “I want robots to do things around the house” argument. There is a counter argument though…a lot of people eat way too much of the wrong things, not enough of the right things, and move way too little. Perhaps this (and drug monopolies) are why we have the most expensive and in many ways lacking health care distribution systems here in the U.S. Do we need another tool to move even less around the home? I know a lot of people who are slowly killing themselves and their children. I doubt the economics will support robots in the home for quite some time, unless they are spying and monetizing their data. I will pass on that. I think we all need to pass until we get some type of unhackable tech (blockchain maybe?) for personal info, one that the gov’t is excluded from.
Do we need robots? Yes. Do we need software? Yes. Are both coming? Yes. As much as I love robotics, I am having trouble seeing past the pre-cursor, the software revolution that is upon us and the huge structural and economic changes it will wreak, to see the robotic revolution that lies beyond.
I mentioned risk management and fear and it deserves some discussion. As a society, how will those that work manage the fear of losing their jobs? How will we manage liability with driverless cars? How will we manage fear of terrorism? Will we allow gov’t and corps into every aspect of our lives? How will we manage money? Will we use nationalism and other isms to create fears that prevent new technologies (and currencies) from replacing old ones. Will we attempt to regulate / control everything for the benefit of people we don’t know. or institutions we may or may not trust? It is worth noting that there is another strategy of risk management, and a rational one much of the time, is to simply bear or ignore a risk. Sometimes the cure is worse than the disease. I think this is the case with terrorism and some other fears in our political discourse. More people will be killed by lack of healthcare, drunk driving, or the opioid epidemic than by terrorism…if I take out the terrorism that we ourselves are inflicting.
All of this will play out in the next decade, and the robotic revolution will be laid upon whatever foundations are laid during that time.
One man’s opinion.